US Dec. 1 Hog Inventory Down 1% From Year Ago
United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on Dec. 1, 2020 was 77.5 million head. This was down 1% from Dec. 1, 2019, and down 1% from Sept. 1, 2020, USDA NASS reported on Wednesday.
Breeding inventory, at 6.28 million head, was down 3% from last year, and down 1% from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 71.2 million head, was down 1% from last year, and down 1% from last quarter.
The September-November 2020 pig crop, at 35.0 million head, was down 1% from 2019. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.16 million head, down 1% from 2019. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.05 for the September-November period, compared to 11.09 last year.
United States hog producers intend to have 3.12 million sows farrow during the December 2020-February 2021 quarter, up 2% from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and up 1% from the same period two years earlier. Intended farrowings for March-May 2021, at 3.12 million sows, are down 1% from the same period one year earlier, and down slightly from the same period two years earlier.
The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 48% of the total United States hog inventory, unchanged from the previous year.
DTN ANALYSIS
“The Dec. 1 quarterly Hogs and Pigs report came in as expected with overall hog numbers falling 1% from a year ago and last quarter,” said DTN Analyst Rick Kment. “With a total of 77.5 million hogs in the nation’s herd, little market impact is expected from inventory changes.
“Breeding inventory is slightly below pre-report estimates, but well in line with market estimates and should not affect overall market direction in the coming days. Breeding intentions for December through February increased to 102%, which is above the 98% pre-report estimate. This could limit the long-term reduction of the hog herd, leading to larger supplies through the end of 2021 and early 2022.
“Generally speaking, the report can be viewed as mostly neutral to the market short term with slightly bearish long-term implications due to the focus on increased hog supplies over the next six to 12 months.”
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| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 as % of 2019 | 2021 as % of 2020 | |
| (1,000 head) | (1,000 head) | (%) | |||
| All Hogs Dec. 1 | 78,228 | 77,502 | 99% | ||
| Kept for Breeding | 6,471 | 6,276 | 97% | ||
| Kept for Marketing | 71,757 | 71,226 | 99% | ||
| WEIGHT BREAKDOWN | |||||
| Under 50 lbs. | 22,048 | 21,739 | 99% | ||
| 50-119 lbs. | 20,636 | 20,260 | 98% | ||
| 120-179 lbs. | 15,256 | 15,246 | 100% | ||
| 180 lbs. and over | 13,816 | 13,980 | 101% | ||
| FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS* | |||||
| Sep-Nov | 3,197 | 3,164 | 99% | ||
| Dec-Feb* | 3,098 | 3,068 | 3,118 | 99% | 102% |
| Mar-May* | 3,132 | 3,149 | 3,123 | 101% | 99% |
| Sep-Nov Pig Crop | 35,459 | 34,973 | 99% | ||
| (number) | (number) | (%) | |||
| Sep-Nov Pigs Per Litter | 11.09 | 11.05 | 100% | ||
