The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report shows signs of further contraction as producers seek to boost profitability, even as the industry tries to meet strong demand expectations.
On September 1st, the total U.S. inventory was 75.352 million head, down 4% on the year and a bigger cut than what some analysts were anticipating heading into the report. That includes a market herd of 69.162 million head, also down 4% for a larger than projected decline, and a breeding herd of 6.19 million head, 2% below a year ago.
For the market inventory, by weight, hogs weighing less than 50 pounds were 21.855 million head and the 50 to 119 pound category was 19.751 million head, both 4% lower, with the 120 to 179 pound herd at 14.656 million head and the 180 pound and heavier category at 12.899 million head, both down 1%.
Tighter numbers are likely in the coming months as well, but could expand late this year or early next year. The June to August pig crop was 6% under last year at 33.9 million head, but with a record number of pigs per litter at 11.13 even as farrowings dropped 7% to 3.046 million head, while September to November farrowings are expected to be 4% lower at 3 million head but December to February farrowing intentions could be up 1% at 2.692 million.
The numbers look friendly for cash and futures prices, but that will depend largely on sustained demand.
Comparisons for Brownfield states:
Illinois: Total: 5.45 million head, up 1% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 660,000 head, 14% higher than a year ago; Market: 4.79 million head, 1% less than last year
Indiana: Total: 4.3 million head, down 3% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 250,000 head, unchanged from a year ago; Market: 4.05 million head, 4% less than last year
Iowa: Total: 24.4 million head, down 2% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 900,000 head, 8% lower than a year ago; Market: 23.5 million head, 1% less than last year
Kansas: Total: 2.04 million head, down 1% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 165,000 head, 6% lower than a year ago; Market: 1.905 million head, 1% less than last year
Michigan: Total: 1.22 million head, unchanged from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 115,000 head, 4% lower than a year ago; Market: 1.105 million head, unchanged from last year
Minnesota: Total: 9 million head, down 1% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 530,000 head, steady with a year ago; Market: 8.47 million head, 1% less than last year
Missouri: Total: 3.4 million head, down 13% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 420,000 head, 11% lower than a year ago; Market: 2.98 million head, 13% less than last year
Nebraska: Total: 3.65 million head, down 4% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 460,000 head, 7% higher than a year ago; Market: 3.19 million head, 5% less than last year
Ohio: Total: 2.5 million head, down 11% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 190,000 head, 14% lower than a year ago; Market: 2.31 million head, 10% less than last year
South Dakota: Total: 2 million head, down 2% from September 1st, 2020; Breeding: 265,000 head, 7% lower than a year ago; Market: 1.735 million head, 2% less than last year
