Swine are pivotal in the evolution of Influenza A Virus (IAV) due to their role as “mixing vessels” for the virus, creating novel strains with potential pandemic threats. This process involves antigenic drift in the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) components of the virus. To assess the risk, researchers have developed a decision tree that evaluates the pandemic potential of new IAV strains. This method was tested on two widespread U.S. swine-origin IAV strains, particularly focusing on their ability to replicate in human airway tissues and transmit through airborne means.
The decision tree model successfully identified strains with higher pandemic potential, such as the alpha-H1N1 strain, which showed efficient replication and airborne transmission capabilities. Despite some reduced replication in animals with prior immunity, the strain’s potential to cause significant outbreaks remains high. This research underscores the importance of continuous surveillance of IAV in swine to mitigate the risk of future pandemics.
Take-Home Messages:
- The novel alpha-H1N1 strain shows a higher pandemic potential, emphasizing the need for vigilant monitoring.
- The ongoing antigenic drift in swine IAV strains requires robust surveillance to detect and manage emerging threats.
- The decision tree approach offers a streamlined strategy to predict which novel IAV strains could pose significant risks, helping to direct prevention efforts.
This research is a critical reminder of the interconnectedness between swine health and global public health, underlining the need for continued research and preparedness against IAV.
