Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
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Hogs Continue Higher, Make New Contract High
December Lean Hogs opened higher and pulled back to the session low at 79.20. It turned higher and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 80.825. The rally took price to a new high for the up move and it is a new high for the December contract. It settled near the high at 80.625. Hogs continue to chug along, working its way higher as the cash market continues to wow traders. The cutout and the cash index both are defying the seasonality, in my opinion as they are moving higher. Slaughter rates continue to work against the Hogs and pigs report, as it has continually been lower than last year. The Hogs and Pigs report said that we had more hogs 180 # and above which in my opinion should have increased slaughter numbers over last year. Instead, the lower slaughter indicates we had less hogs in that weight class. The cutouts have been super strong in my opinion and the Monday cutout was up 3.01, putting the cutout above 100.00 at 101.95. This will keep the index moving higher which is unexpected. Traders continue to close the discount futures have to the index and we are seeing more longs in the market according to the cot report than normal for this time of year, in my opinion. This could eventually work against the futures market if we seed the cash markets reverse and go lower. So far however, the cash markets are strong and aren’t showing any signs of turning lower, in my opinion. The rally in the futures stopped just shy of resistance at the declining 100-DMA now at 81.025. This could be strong resistance. The strong close took price above resistance at 80.45. Tuesday could be interesting. If price breaks down from settlement, it could test support at 80.45. Support then comes in at 79.80. If price can overcome the declining 100-DMA, it could test resistance at 81.70.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 98.13 as of 10/25/2024.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 85.43 as of 10/24/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 488,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 474,955.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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tested support at the
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