As U.S. agriculture faces the possibility of a new trade war under President-elect Donald Trump, pork producers are preparing for potential disruptions in trade with China, one of their key markets. President-elect Trump has proposed imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and additional tariffs on other imports, which could prompt China to retaliate with its own import restrictions. This scenario is concerning for U.S. pork producers, who rely on China as a significant export market.
China has been decreasing its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, including pork, as it diversifies its sourcing. U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 24% last year and are projected to continue declining. Meanwhile, Mexico has now become the largest U.S. ag export destination, surpassing China, according to recent Census Bureau data.
In response to these risks, U.S. pork producers, along with others in the agriculture industry, are working to mitigate potential impacts by expanding into alternative markets, including Southeast Asia, Africa, and India. Despite these efforts, industry experts recognize the difficulty of fully replacing the Chinese market, given its scale and demand. Industry leaders like Ryan LeGrand of the U.S. Grains Council and Verity Ulibarri, a sorghum farmer, stress that lessons from the 2018 trade war have better prepared producers to navigate potential challenges ahead.
