The USDA’s December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on December 23, 2024, provides a comprehensive look at the current state of the U.S. pork industry and its outlook for 2025. The report reveals a steady industry with notable growth opportunities in production and exports. Here’s an analysis of the key findings:
Production Growth and Forecasts
The U.S. pork industry is forecasted to produce 28.5 billion pounds in 2025, a 2.6% increase compared to 2024. Key drivers include:
- Larger Pig Crops: The September–November pig crop rose by 2% year-over-year, reaching 35.2 million head, fueled by a higher litter rate of 11.92 pigs per litter.
- Farrowing Trends: While farrowings during the same period slightly decreased by 7,000 head, farrowing intentions for December 2024–February 2025 remain stable. The March–May 2025 quarter is projected to see a 1% increase in farrowings over 2024.
Quarterly Highlights
- First Quarter 2025: Production is revised up to 7.1 billion pounds, less than 1% higher than the same quarter in 2024. Hog prices are projected to average $61 per cwt, an 11% increase year-over-year.
- Second Quarter 2025: A production increase of 2% year-over-year is forecasted, totaling 6.9 billion pounds, with prices averaging $66 per cwt.
- Third Quarter 2025: Assuming producers follow through on stated farrowing intentions, pork production could reach 7 billion pounds, up 3% year-over-year, with hog prices expected at $70 per cwt—10% higher than the same quarter in 2024.
- Fourth Quarter 2025: Production is forecasted at 7.5 billion pounds, a 4% increase over the same period in 2024. However, prices are expected to decline by 10%, averaging $56 per cwt.
Export Trends
Exports remain a bright spot for the pork industry:
- Record November 2024 Exports: U.S. pork exports reached 644 million pounds, a 6% increase from November 2023. Growth was driven by:
- China and Hong Kong: Exports surged by 69%, demonstrating strong demand in Asian markets.
- Oceania: Shipments to Australia increased by 31%, signaling opportunities in emerging regions.
- Challenges in Mexico: While still the largest buyer of U.S. pork, Mexico’s share of exports fell to 36%, with volumes slightly down year-over-year.
- Total 2024 Exports: Expected to reach 7.108 billion pounds, up 4.2% from 2023, though fourth-quarter exports were slightly adjusted downward.
Domestic Consumption
- Per Capita Pork Disappearance: Forecasted to increase from 50.4 pounds in 2024 to 51.2 pounds in 2025, indicating steady domestic demand.
- Exported Share of Production: Projected to decline slightly, from 25.8% in 2024 to 25.7% in 2025, reflecting a balanced focus on domestic and international markets.
Market Challenges and Opportunities
The industry’s stability is underpinned by cautious production increases and robust demand:
- Supply Dynamics: Early 2025 will see slightly fewer market-ready hogs compared to 2024, but late spring and summer months are expected to have higher slaughter-ready inventories.
- Processor Demand: Continued strong bidding for hogs reflects the sustained appetite for pork products, domestically and internationally.
For more insights and detailed data, you can access the full USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: January 2025 here.
