Industry Navigates Cost, Trade, and Disease Risks
The pork industry faces a complex landscape in early 2025, balancing improved productivity and evolving consumer demands against economic volatility, rising geopolitical risks, and persistent disease threats. Rabobank’s latest Global Pork Quarterly report highlights key trends that will shape the industry.
Production Costs and Market Conditions
While production costs are expected to decline due to better grain availability, weather patterns and geopolitical factors could still drive price fluctuations. Soybean inventories are forecast to reach record highs in 2025, although dry conditions in Argentina and a delayed safrinha corn crop in Brazil may increase corn prices.
Despite positive profitability in 2024, producers remain cautious about herd expansion. Growth is anticipated in China, Brazil, and Mexico, while the EU and U.S. could see declines. According to Rabobank Senior Analyst Chenjun Pan, global pork supply is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025, with regional supply and demand balances varying.
Global Trade Faces High Uncertainty
Rising political tensions and policy shifts in major markets could disrupt trade in 2025. The possibility of new tariff policies under President Donald Trump poses risks to global pork flows, potentially leading to retaliatory measures that could impact exports from China, Mexico, and Canada.
Disease remains a significant concern, with African swine fever in Asia and Europe, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) worldwide, and a recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Germany. Trade suspensions due to disease outbreaks continue to challenge supply chains, emphasizing the need for enhanced biosecurity measures.
Competitive Pricing Boosts Pork Consumption
Pork remains a competitive protein source, benefiting from lower feed costs and improved productivity. As beef prices rise and poultry demand remains high, pork consumption is expected to increase in North America and Brazil. Europe may experience seasonal price increases, while Asia faces fluctuating demand, with downward pressure in China and South Korea but stronger pricing in Japan and Southeast Asia.
Technology and Innovation Driving Industry Forward
The industry is investing in disease mitigation strategies, including vaccines and enhanced biosecurity. Automation, digitalization, and AI-driven monitoring systems are also becoming more common on large-scale farms to improve efficiency and disease prevention. These technologies aim to enhance sustainability, biosecurity, and overall productivity.
Looking Ahead
As 2025 unfolds, pork producers must navigate cost fluctuations, trade uncertainties, and disease risks while leveraging technology and innovation to maintain stability. The industry’s resilience will be tested, but strategic investments in efficiency and health management will be crucial to long-term success.
Stay informed with the latest pork industry updates at Swine Web.
