The UK pig sector is poised for slight growth in 2025, with the breeding herd projected to increase by 1% to around 330,000 head by mid-year. Despite this modest expansion, overall pig meat production is expected to remain stable at approximately 960,000 tonnes, reflecting a marginal 0.1% decline compared to 2024.
Quarterly production trends suggest small year-on-year increases in the first, second, and fourth quarters, while the third quarter may see a slight downturn due to high production levels in the same period of the previous year. Industry sentiment has improved in the latter half of 2024, though economic pressures and fluctuating costs continue to challenge producers, leading to some farm exits and a 3.1% reduction in the breeding herd earlier in the year.
Investment in on-farm improvements and genetic advancements points toward long-term stability, but uncertainties surrounding economic conditions and government policies continue to temper optimism. Productivity gains have supported positive margins, with average net profits per pig improving, though producer confidence remains cautious.
Trade prospects for 2025 present a mixed picture. Export volumes are forecasted to decline slightly due to lower demand from key markets like the EU and the USA, though opportunities exist in Southeast Asia, where African Swine Fever has impacted local production. The potential relisting of UK processing facilities for China and growing trade relationships with markets such as South Korea could help balance weaker demand in traditional export destinations.
Domestically, retail sales of pork are expected to remain under pressure due to economic challenges and evolving consumer preferences. However, the foodservice sector offers growth potential, with rising demand for convenient and cost-effective pork products. Industry stakeholders are encouraged to focus on consumer needs while maintaining high standards of welfare and sustainability.
While challenges remain, the combination of stable production, emerging export opportunities, and shifting consumer trends suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the UK pig industry in 2025.
