A better cost environment and resilient demand are supporting the outlook for global pork markets, but trade vulnerabilities and disease pressures remain risk factors.
Global trade is facing challenges from geopolitical dynamics. China’s launch of an antidumping probe into EU pork imports is raising concerns about the vulnerability of global trade. The US-China trade war that started in 2018 has changed part of the global pork trade. The upcoming US presidential election could bring changes in US trade policy and uncertainty to global trade patterns over the coming years, adding complexity to the global market.
Pork supply-demand balance will vary in different regions in 2H. Some countries, such as China, Vietnam, and Philippines, will see tight pork supply in 2H due to disease outbreaks, while other regions, including the EU and the US, will likely see pork supply increase slightly. Sow herd recovery will likely be faster than expected, especially in the EU and China. Productivity gains will continue despite recurrent disease issues in some regions.
Lower feed costs will support farming expansion. We expect ample global supplies of grains and oilseeds to pressure feed prices in 2H. This will continue to benefit producers and encourage herd expansion.
Pork demand is resilient. Pork consumption in 2H will improve due to seasonal demand. In addition, easing pork prices in the EU and weak prices in the US should support pork consumption in these regions.
