Alberta Pork Weekly Report August 3, 2021

By
Jim Eadie
-

Announcements, news and reminders

From Alberta Pork

Small-scale production webinars – this month

Alberta Farm Animal Care (AFAC) and Prairie Swine Health Services are hosting a three-part webinar series, free of charge, starting Wed., Aug. 18, for producers interested in learning more about small-scale pig production. Register now.

ASF preparedness course – next month

The Animal Health Emergency Management (AHEM) Project is hosting an online African Swine Fever (ASF) emergency preparedness course starting Tues., Sep. 21, which takes approximately 15 hours to complete over a four-week period. Register now.

CWSHIN Q2 2021 producer report

The Canada West Swine Health Intelligence Network (CWSHIN) has released its producer report for the second quarter of 2021, featuring updates on disease status and animal health. View the report.

Agri-food events adapt during COVID-19

COVID-19 has shown the Canadian agri-food industry new ways of flourishing under less-than-ideal circumstances. But as in-person gatherings return, so do important engagement opportunities. Read the full story in the Summer 2021 edition of the Canadian Hog Journal.

Feed cost modelling

Supplied by Gowans Feed Consulting

View the latest feed price calculator

Information last updated July 14, 2021
In general, old crop grain markets have heated up beyond what we have seen in recent history. There are limited offers on small grains and those that are available are pushing the $400/T mark. This is on the back of the downgrading of both the quality and supply of wheat and barley in the Northern US and Canadian prairies.
  • Wheat for August delivery is currently trading between $400-415 into Red Deer area. Certainly the range of offers is larger than that, but those are trades we have seen over the past week. Remaining old crop stocks are dwindling and harvest is eagerly awaited.
  • Barley trading at $400 to Red Deer for similar reasons to wheat – concerns about yields have been seen across the board. The corridor between Calgary and Edmonton may be in the best shape of regions across the Canadian Prairies
  • DDGS prices originating out of the US have climbed around $20 this week on top of the additional $20 from last week. Tightness of corn supply threatening crush margins in North Dakota and weakening of the Canadian dollar have contributed to this increase. Delivered Red Deer DDGS price around $370/T
  • SBM trading around $570-580 delivered and Canola meal around the $400 mark
As new crop starts to shape up, we see unit trains of corn trading into Alberta which could put a cap on new crop cereal grain prices. Old crop corn isn’t pricing in but trades around $360-365 seen for OND corn which could help to keep a lid on OND wheat and barley prices.
Disclaimer: Gowans Feed Consulting presents the ingredient prices and feed cost modelling as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes online and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission. Gowans Feed Consulting does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any material contained in this publication.

Hog supply and price reporting

Supplied by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

View the latest hog supply report as a PDF

Information last updated July 31, 2021

Supplied by Commodity Professionals Inc.
View the latest pork market report as a PDF

Information last updated August 3, 2021

Pricing overview

Cash hog markets around the world have traded in various directions over the last 2 years depending on a country’s health status, domestic demand, and related supply issues.

As illustrated in the graphs shown, Canadian hog prices near $2.60 – $2.70 CAD/kg are amongst the highest around the world when currency is standardized.  With all reported values converted to Canadian dollars, it provides further insight to the comparable valuation of pig prices abroad.
Pig prices in China, when converted to CAD, have plummeted from $7.00 per kg at the start of 2021 to $2.55 in late June and only recently returned to around $3.00 per kg in the first week in August.  US prices, also reported in CAD reached $3.50 per kg in June, trending in the exact opposite direction to China from the beginning of the year with the last month and a half showing signs of weakness and prices dropping below the $2.80 per kg mark for the first time since March.
In Spain, the #1 pork exporter in the world by value, prices have been relatively stable trading between $1.70 – $2.40 CAD per kg since early 2020.  Recently however over the last 60 days, hog prices in Spain have declined from $2.30 CAD per kg to $1.80.
Canadian hog markets will not be able to sustain continued weakness in other markets around the world for much longer.   With demand concerns continuing to mount and supply numbers expected to seasonally rise, producers should prepare for lower cash markets heading into the back half of the year.

Weekly hog price recap

Regional and national cash hogs fell daily with Tuesday down the most on the week. CME cash moved more moderately, recording modest gains most of the week and slight declines mid-week. Wholesale pork values were mixed to generally higher with only ribs averaging under week ago levels. US pork cutout was $2.04/cwt over the previous week’s average.
Market hog values varied, however were generally lower than last reported. The ML Sig 4 and hog values out of Ontario were each down $3.50/hog, while those out of Quebec declined $1.75/hog. Hylife climbed $2.25/hog, while those out of the OlyW 20 were up $3/hog and the OlyW 21 rose $5/hog. BP/TC rose more than $6.25/hog from a week prior. In the US, hog values out of Tyson and JM each fell $8/hog from the previous week.

Weekly hog margins

Canadian hog margins generally strengthened largely due to a reduction in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped nearly $3.50/hog while those in the monitored US region fell $2/hog from a week earlier.

Hog margins out of the OlyW 20 strengthened $6.35 to $103/hog profits, while those out of Ontario were unchanged at $91.40/hog profits and Quebec was up $1.60 to $91.25/hog profits. Hylife margins improved $5.65 to $80/hog profits, while the OlyW 21 strengthened $8.40 to nearly $79/hog profits and the ML Sig 4 was unchanged at $76.60/hog profits. In the US, hog margins weakened with Tyson down $5.35 to $90.65/hog profits while JM margins fell $6 to $83/hog profits.

U.S. regional margins

  • Tyson: $90.67 USD x 1.2545 = $113.75 CAD
  • Morrell: $82.98 USD x 1.2545 = $104.10 CAD
Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents the ingredient prices and feed cost modelling as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes online and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission. Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any material contained in this publication.

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