The latest Livestock and Products Annual report from FAS Manila highlights a cautious but positive outlook for the Philippines’ pork industry in 2025. After facing significant challenges from African Swine Fever (ASF) in recent years, the country’s pork production is expected to see a slight rebound in 2025, with forecasts estimating production at 1.06 million metric tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE). This represents a modest 2% increase from 2024, signaling the sector’s resilience amidst ongoing disease control efforts and economic recovery.
Economic Growth Driving Demand
The report emphasizes that strong economic growth, projected to exceed 6% in 2024 and 2025, coupled with a growing population, is expected to drive an increase in meat consumption, including pork. However, despite this economic optimism, the lingering effects of ASF and other challenges have kept domestic production levels below pre-ASF figures. The improved disease situation anticipated in the latter half of 2025 is likely to aid in herd rebuilding efforts, but recovery remains slow.
Imports Expected to Rise
The Philippines’ reliance on pork imports is set to continue, with a forecast of 510,000 metric tons CWE in 2025, up from an estimated 480,000 metric tons in 2024. This increase is supported by ongoing strong demand and the recent expansion of market access for Brazilian pork through Department Order (DO) 3. Additionally, the extension of tariff reductions for pork imports until 2028, under Executive Order 62, provides importers with greater certainty, likely leading to more consistent import levels throughout the year.
Price Dynamics
As domestic pork production gradually rebounds, prices are expected to remain elevated due to the mismatch between supply and demand. In the Metro Manila market, pork kasim (shoulder) and liempo (belly) prices have seen significant year-on-year increases, reflecting strong consumer demand and limited supply. Although import prices for pork have also risen, they remain more competitive compared to domestically produced pork, which continues to face higher production costs, particularly from feed inputs affected by El Niño and other factors.
Looking Forward
While the Philippines’ pork industry shows signs of recovery, it remains heavily influenced by external factors such as global trade dynamics, disease management, and economic conditions. The ongoing challenges highlight the need for continued investment in biosecurity and disease prevention to ensure a sustainable and resilient pork production sector in the years ahead.
The 2025 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with the industry hoping to build on the expected improvements in disease control and economic conditions to restore production levels and stabilize the market. However, the path to full recovery remains fraught with challenges, and stakeholders will need to remain vigilant in their efforts to protect and enhance the sector’s future.
