According to the USDA’s latest 10-year projections, Mexico’s per capita consumption of poultry and red meat is set to see continued growth through 2033. By the end of this period, total meat consumption is expected to reach 82.5 kilograms per person, which equates to about two-thirds of the projected U.S. consumption, estimated at 124 kilograms per person in 2033.
Mexico’s growing appetite for meat has been fueled by several factors over the past few decades, with significant credit given to trade agreements such as the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its 2020 successor, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). NAFTA played a crucial role by gradually eliminating restrictions on U.S. and Canadian meat and agricultural imports, which led to an increase in the availability of market-priced livestock feed. This, in turn, spurred substantial growth in Mexico’s domestic meat production, particularly in pork and chicken.
As Mexico’s economy benefited from the trade agreements, domestic meat supply grew in response to rising demand. A significant portion of this demand has been met by imports, especially from the neighboring United States.
The USDA’s projections indicate that poultry consumption in Mexico will increase from 38.3 kilograms per capita to 43.8 kilograms by 2033. Pork consumption is also expected to rise, from 20.2 kilograms to 22.6 kilograms per capita. In contrast, beef consumption is projected to see more modest growth, increasing from 15.7 kilograms to 16 kilograms per person over the next decade. Overall, domestic production for all three meats is anticipated to rise by 22% to 25% by 2033.
“Based on the assumption that current policies remain in place, the projected increase in Mexico’s per capita meat consumption is supported by expectations that meat imports will grow and that domestic meat production will increase,” the USDA stated.
In terms of imports, the USDA projects a significant increase in chicken imports, with a 31% rise expected by 2033. Pork imports are anticipated to grow by 17%, while beef imports are expected to decline by 5% during the same period.
For more detailed insights, you can access the full USDA Agricultural Projections report here.
