Report Overview:
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the December 2024 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, highlighting key trends and data points in the U.S. hog industry. The report provides insights into inventory, breeding and market hogs, pig crop, farrowing intentions, and industry revisions.
1. Total U.S. Hog Inventory
- The total inventory of hogs and pigs as of December 1, 2024, was 75.8 million head, up 1% from December 2023 but down slightly from September 2024.
- Breeding inventory: 6.0 million head, a slight year-over-year increase but 1% lower than the previous quarter.
- Market hog inventory: 69.8 million head, up 1% year-over-year but down slightly from the prior quarter.
2. Pig Crop and Farrowing Trends
- The September-November 2024 pig crop totaled 35.2 million head, a 2% increase from the same period in 2023.
- Sows farrowing during this period were 2.96 million head, a slight decline from the previous year. These farrowings accounted for 49% of the breeding herd.
- Average pigs saved per litter rose to 11.92, up from 11.66 in 2023, reflecting improved production efficiency.
3. Farrowing Intentions
- December 2024–February 2025: Producers intend to farrow 2.93 million sows, a slight increase from the same period in the prior year but 1% lower than two years ago.
- March-May 2025: Farrowing intentions are projected at 2.95 million sows, up 1% year-over-year and slightly higher than two years prior.
4. Contract Hog Production
- Contract operations with more than 5,000 head accounted for 50% of the total inventory, down 1% from 2023. This slight decline indicates minor shifts in production ownership structures.
5. Revisions to Historical Data
- Inventory and pig crop estimates from December 2022 through September 2024 were reviewed and revised based on updated slaughter, death loss, and trade data. Key revisions include:
- September 2024 inventory: Adjusted upward by 0.5%.
- June-August 2024 pig crop: Revised by 1.2%.
- Additional adjustments were made to estimates for March-May 2024 and September 2023, with revisions ranging between 0.4%-2.6%.
6. Notable Observations and Records
- Improved productivity: Pigs per litter and pig crop totals reflect consistent gains in efficiency.
- Data exclusions: Following the 2022 Census of Agriculture, several states were no longer included in the December 2024 report, including Alabama, Alaska, and California, among others.
7. Market Hog Weight Group Distribution
Market hogs are categorized into weight groups, with notable year-over-year changes:
- Under 50 pounds: Increased by 1% to 21.83 million head.
- 50-119 pounds: Remained steady at 19.42 million head.
- 120-179 pounds: Slight decline to 14.82 million head.
- 180 pounds and over: Increased by 2% to 13.76 million head.
8. Regional and Seasonal Highlights
- Geographic trends: Major hog-producing states such as Iowa, Minnesota, and North Carolina maintained their leadership in inventory and pig crop productivity.
- Seasonal focus: Farrowing and pig crop trends suggest a slight seasonal variation, with consistent gains in litter size and breeding efficiency across quarters.
Conclusion
The report highlights the resilience and steady growth of the U.S. hog industry, with incremental improvements in productivity and slight shifts in inventory patterns. Producers are focusing on efficiency, as evidenced by gains in pigs per litter and pig crop totals. While revisions to historical data underscore the importance of accurate reporting, the overall outlook for 2025 appears positive, with continued growth expected.
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