If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list – Sign Up Now
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, November 12, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
December Lean Hogs opened lower and traded down to the session low at 79.10. This is a new low for the recent down move and traders quickly took price to the session high at 80.60 as the morning cutout rebounded causing some thoughts that the breakdown in cutouts is over, in my opinion. This idea didn’t last long with the market pulling back and settling near the low at 79.50. The break down to the low took price below support at 79.80 and the declining 100-DMA now at 79.675. The decline to the low stopped just above support at 78.80 and the rally couldn’t sustain the move above resistance at 80.45. This implies negative sentiment for the moment, in my opinion. Export sales came out this morning and was disappointing in my opinion as it was only 19,100 MT down noticeably from the previous week and down 12% from the 4-week average according to the USDA. With the US Dollar rallying, it makes our exports more expensive and could continue to curtail our exports going forward. This could dampen demand and continue to put pressure on the cutout as importers would demand lower prices to counter the Dollar strength, in my opinion. We are also in the seasonally strong slaughter period and this could also put pressure on price. Slaughter has been below last year for around 7 out of the past 9 weeks, but numbers are above 2,600,000 which is a hefty number, in my opinion. The seasonality’s suggest continued struggles for the Hog market. So, it will be an interesting last two weeks of November. We’ll see!… If price breaks down from settlement, it could test support at 78.80. Support then comes in at the flattening 50-DMA now at 78.425. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at the declining 100-DMA and then 79.80. Resistance then comes in at 80.45.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 98.49 as of 11/14/2024.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 89.78 as of 11/13/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 484,000, which is below last week’s 485,000 and above last year’s 480,991. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 225,000, which is above last week’s 168,000 and below last year’s 244,257. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,633,000, which is above last week’s 2,605,000 and below last year’s 2,647,405.
Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
