The USDA’s November 2024 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook delivers critical insights into the swine industry, covering production, pricing, and export trends as the year winds down. Here’s a full breakdown of the latest developments and projections.
Production Trends
- Fourth-Quarter Pork Production: Pork production for Q4 2024 is projected at 7.3 billion pounds, a reduction of 90 million pounds from prior forecasts. This adjustment is due to slower-than-expected slaughter rates and slightly lighter dressed weights. However, production remains 1.8% higher year-over-year, highlighting sustained consumer demand.
- 2025 Forecasts: Early projections for Q1 2025 show a production decrease to 7 billion pounds, about 1% lower than Q1 2024. This is attributed to ongoing tight supplies of slaughter-ready hogs.
Hog Pricing Trends
- Current Prices: Fourth-quarter 2024 hog prices are forecast to average $60 per hundredweight (cwt), reflecting a 12% increase from the same quarter in 2023. This significant price rise stems from reduced hog availability and heightened processor competition.
- 2025 Price Momentum: First-quarter prices are forecast at $58/cwt, up 6% from the same period in 2024. The second-quarter forecast rises further to $62/cwt, driven by tighter supply conditions.
Export Growth
- September Exports: U.S. pork exports reached 549 million pounds in September, up 7% year-over-year. Key contributors include:
- Mexico: The largest export market, accounting for 38% of total U.S. pork exports.
- China and Hong Kong: Combined shipments rose by 41%, marking a significant rebound in demand.
- 2024 and 2025 Outlook:
- 2024 Exports: Expected to total 7.2 billion pounds, a 4.8% increase from 2023. Exports will account for 25.7% of U.S. commercial pork production.
- 2025 Exports: Forecasted at 7.4 billion pounds, up 2.8% year-over-year, representing 25.9% of U.S. production—a potential record high.
Industry Challenges
- Tight Supplies: The ongoing reduction in slaughter-ready hogs and lighter dressed weights will continue to constrain production and influence pricing into 2025.
- Global Competition: Although U.S. pork remains in high demand, growing international competition could present challenges, particularly in key markets like Asia and Latin America.
Opportunities
The industry’s ability to adapt to tighter supply conditions and capitalize on robust export demand will be pivotal in the coming quarters. Investments in production efficiency and global market access are likely to be key drivers of growth.
Access the Full USDA Report
For a comprehensive analysis, download the complete November 2024 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for detailed data and insights on swine and other livestock sectors.
