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April Lean Hogs opened higher and turned lower to the session low at 86.75. The breakdown to the low tested the key level at 87.10. Price was able to stand its ground as the cattle markets were off to the races, lending some support to the hogs. Hogs rebounded and traded to the high at 88.45. The run higher tested resistance at 88.325, and the market pulled back a touch and then settled at 88.20. Our exports have been fairly good in my opinion with a strong US Dollar and now we are seeing a pullback in the Dollar which could help exports going forward if the decline continues. The now erratic Dollar has to stabilize however, as a constantly moving currency can hinder business, in my opinion. Slaughter numbers were lower this week and could start a trend where the current week numbers stay below last year. With the cash market continuing higher and the cutout
basically staying in place, it could indicate the numbers aren’t there for the packer. The packer doesn’t pay anymore that it has too in my opinion. Since he is willing to pay to get numbers needed and the slaughter is down, we could have lower numbers than expected. We also have a surging cattle market and Hogs may get swept up and follow cattle higher if cattle continues’ its surge. Easter is coming late this year and this could help Hogs move higher as the retailer loads up on hams. The President’s negotiators are also pressing China to honor its commitments from the last treaty that the last president didn’t enforce. If China complies and buys more pork this could be bullish for the hog Market. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 87.10 and then January 10 th low at 86.00. If settlement holds price could revisit resistance at 88.325. A breakout above resistance could see price re-test resistance at 90.40, which is where the April contract started as the lead contact with the high that day at 90.50.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is 91.12 as of 01/23/2025.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 81.93 as of 01/22/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 485,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 476,178. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 186,000, which is below last week’s 213,000 and last year’s 282,363. The estimated total for the week(so far) is 1,477,000, which is below last week’s 2,627,000 and last year’s 2,688,319.
Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
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