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February Lean Hogs opened higher and made the session high at 83.225. It broke down to the low at 82.025. The move was over by 9:45 CST and price drifted the rest of the session to settle near the low at 82.30. The open failed to overcome overhead resistance at 83.325 after settling below it on Wednesday. The breakdown stalled just above support at the rising 8-DMA now at 81.925. The cash market strength is starting to waver and futures traders weren’t comfortable with the Feb contract trading at a premium to the index, taking some off the top. Exports were good in my opinion, with sales at 30,300 MT with the US Dollar stabilizing just below its high during the sales period. Sales of 30,000 MT with the Dollar at its recent highs says something positive about US pork in my opinion. Cutouts and the cash market are anticipated to move higher during the next few weeks as the seasonality is for stronger pork prices during this period. We are seeing some good strength in the deferreds even with Thursday’s decline as they are the contracts to likely benefit the most from the seasonality. We’ll see!… A breakdown below the 8-DMA could see price test support at 81.70 and then the rising 100-DMA now at 81.025. Support then comes in at 80.45. If settlement holds price could revisit resistance at 83.325. The 50-DMA is just above at 83.575.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is 90.58 as of 01/15/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 81.10 as of 01/14/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Wednesday is 488,000, which is above last week’s 483,000 and last year’s 483,232. The estimated total for the week(so far) is 1,935,000, which is above last week’s 1,901,000 and last year’s 1,786,564.
Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
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