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December Lean Hogs opened higher and ticked to the session high at 82.35. The open was just above resistance at the 13-DMA now at 82.25. The price action turned lower and broke down to the session low at 79.40. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled at 80.10. The breakdown took price below support at 79.80 and the 100-DMA now at 79.775 but it was able to recover with settlement above these levels. The breakdown also took price to a new low for the recent down move, taking out the November 8th low at 79.80. The cash market is starting to breakdown as a higher Dollar may may keep exports down. Exports have been a boon for the hog market and the rally in the Dollar we have seen could put the brakes on export demand. Slaughter levels have been under expectations which has helped the cutout and the cash market. Forcing retailers to pay up and the same for the packer. But there could still be an increase in slaughter coming which could further pressure cutouts. Cutouts were lower on Thursday which will put some more pressure on the cutout index. The Lean Hog Index is also expected to be lower. We see exports before the open on Friday, due to the Veteran’s Day holiday. These results could affect the open on Friday. If price breaks down from 79.80, it could test support at 78.80. Support then comes in at the 50-DMA now at 78.45. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at the rising 21-DMA now at 80.975. Resistance then comes in at 81.70.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 99.18 as of 11/13/2024.
The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 89.94 as of 11/12/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 488,000, which is above last week’s 487,000 and last year’s 487,076. The estimated total for the week is 1,924,000, which is below last week’s 1,952,000 and above last year’s 1,921,657.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
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