Paul Anderson, General Manager South East Asia – International Sales Manager
Philippines
The swine industry in the Philippines during the third quarter of 2023 has shown a mix of challenges and opportunities. The industry continues to grapple with the aftermath of the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak that began in 2019, affecting production levels and pork supply. While efforts to control the disease have yielded some positive results, various factors such as feed prices, disease management, and market demand continue to influence the industry’s trajectory.
• African Swine Fever Recovery: The ASF situation in the Philippines has gradually improved, with many regions achieving disease-free status. This has led to a slow recovery in swine populations, although the industry is still far from its pre-ASF production levels.
• Supply and Demand Dynamics: Pork supply remains constrained due to the lingering effects of ASF and ongoing challenges in rebuilding swine herds. The live weight price is also beginning to increase after plummeting last 2nd quarter to early 3rd quarter.
• Government Interventions: The Philippine government has continued its efforts to support the recovery of the swine industry. Initiatives include financial aid to affected farmers, stricter biosecurity measures, and investments in disease surveillance and prevention.
• Feed Costs: Swine farmers have faced challenges related to rising feed prices, which have impacted their production costs. Volatile global grain markets, supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures have contributed to these increased costs.
• Biosecurity Measures: Farmers and producers are investing more in biosecurity measures to prevent the resurgence of ASF and other diseases. These measures include improved farm management practices, stricter movement controls, and enhanced hygiene protocols.
The Philippines Swine Industry is expected to continue its gradual recovery throughout the third quarter of 2023. While progress is being made in controlling ASF, challenges such as feed costs, disease management, and shifting consumer preferences remain.
The Filipino farmers are making strides towards recovery from the ASF outbreak. By adapting to changing market dynamics, embracing technology, and ensuring strong biosecurity measures, the industry can position itself for sustainable growth in the coming quarters.
Thailand
Falling pig prices in Thailand continue to cause suffering to the pig producers.
Major pig producers in Thailand continued to suffer losses due to falling pig prices, rising production cost and slow demand for animal proteins.
CPF, Thailand’s largest pig producer, reported a loss of THB 793 million (USD 22.3 million) on sales of THB 150.2 billion (USD 4.2 billion).
CPF’s CEO Prasit Boondoungprasert said the loss was a result of lower pig prices, higher feed raw material prices and slow demand for meats.
However, he said the loss in the second quarter was lower than the first quarter in which CPF lost over THB 3.8 billion (USD 108 million).
Betago Group, the second largest pig producer in Thailand, reported a loss of THB 350.6 million on sales of THB 26.7 billion (USD 750 million).
Thailand has about one million sows. Of which, 40% belongs to CPF and 10% belongs to Betagro.
Meanwhile, the price of live pigs in Thailand in August slightly increased from Q2 to THB 68/kg (USD 1.8). However, it remained lower than the production cost of THB 80/kg (USD 2.2).
The cost in August is lower from THB 90/kg (USD 2.5) in Q2 due to lower piglet price. The price of a weaned piglet weight around 7kg in the month is at THB 1000 (USD 28), which is -66% from the same period last year. At this price, the producers lost about THB 400/head (USD11.2).
Rapid expansion of sow herds by large producers coupled with massive pork smugglings are being blamed to suppress the prices of live pigs and pork in Thailand.
Vietnam
The price of the liveweight pig is currently 59,000 – 61,000 vnd/kg in the North; 57,000 – 60,000 vnd/kg in the centre; and 56,000 – 59,000 vnd/kg in the South. The average will be around 58,500vnd/kg. More detail, please see the link: https://vietnambiz.vn/gia-heo-hoi-hom-nay-218-cao-nhat-61000-dongkg-2023820104931761.htm.
The goversment have some results to use ASF vaccine: “Positive results from ASF vaccination at farm households” (Source: https://nongnghiep.vn/ket-qua-kha-quan-tu-tiem-vacxin-dich-ta-lon-chau-phi-tai-nong-ho-d350991.html).
The goversment of Vietnam is already allow for two company Navetco and Avac to produce ASF vaccine for commercial and will export to Philippine with 2 million doses in October (source: https://danviet.vn/sap-xuat-khau-2-trieu-lieu-vaccine-dich-ta-lon-chau-phi-sang-philippines-20230726155925262.htm).
According to VCBS, Vietnam’s total pig herd has a deficit of about 20-25% compared to normal, the pig supply in the second half of 2023 is unlikely to recover quickly. Therefore, pork prices will continue to stay high when supply is weaker than demand in the near future (Source: https://vietnambiz.vn/gia-heo-hoi-hom-nay-148-lang-song-o-ca-ba-mien-2023813194655965.htm).
Mr. Nguyen Tri Cong, Chairman of Dong Nai Livestock Association, proposed that the State order enterprises and large farms to stockpile livestock, in case farmers abandon their stables and supply decreases (Source: https://vietnambiz.vn/de-xuat-nuoi-heo-du-tru-phong-khi-nong-ho-bo-chuong-nguon-cung-giam-202332112520622.htm).
The Prime Minister requested to prevent and strictly handle the smuggling of pigs into Vietnam (Source: https://cucthuy.gov.vn/web/guest/-/th%E1%BB%A7-t%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bng-y%C3%AAu-c%E1%BA%A7u-ng%C4%83n-ch%E1%BA%B7n-x%E1%BB%AD-l%C3%BD-nghi%C3%AAm-vi%E1%BB%87c-nh%E1%BA%ADp-l%E1%BA%ADu-l%E1%BB%A3n-v%C3%A0o-vi%E1%BB%87t-nam?redirect=%2F).
Overview of Vietnam’s pig industry in the period of 2019-2022 (P1 – P4): Herd growth and meat production (Source: https://nhachannuoi.vn/tong-quan-ve-nganh-chan-nuoi-lon-cua-viet-nam-giai-doan-2019-2022-p1-tang-truong-dan-va-san-luong-thit/; https://nhachannuoi.vn/tong-quan-ve-nganh-chan-nuoi-lon-giai-doan-2019-2022-con-giong-va-thuc-an-p2/; https://nhachannuoi.vn/tong-quan-ve-nganh-chan-nuoi-lon-cua-viet-nam-giai-doan-2019-2023-p3-ve-moi-truong-va-cong-nghe-chan-nuoi/; https://nhachannuoi.vn/tong-quan-ve-nganh-chan-nuoi-lon-cua-viet-nam-giai-doan-2019-2023-p4-su-chuyen-dich-co-cau/).
