The U.S. pork industry started 2025 on a strong note, with increased production and higher hog prices driven by robust consumer demand. According to the latest USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, estimated federally inspected (FI) pork production in January 2025 reached approximately 2.5 billion pounds, reflecting a 1% increase compared to January 2024.
This growth was primarily fueled by a higher number of slaughter-ready animals—about 11.4 million head, nearly 1% more than the previous year—combined with slightly heavier average dressed weights. Despite this increase in supply, consumer demand for pork remained high, allowing processors to command higher sale prices for pork cuts at the wholesale level.
Hog Prices Surge Over 19%
January 2025 saw a significant increase in hog prices, with processors paying $80.19 per hundredweight (cwt)—a 19% jump from January 2024. At the same time, the wholesale pork carcass cutout averaged $91.07 per cwt, 4.7% higher than the same period last year.
While the gross processor spread (the margin between the price paid for hogs and the wholesale value of pork) remains below 2024 levels and the three-year average, its positive trajectory in 2025 indicates strong consumer demand. Unlike past years, where spreads tended to decline early in the year, 2025 is showing an upward trend, with wholesale carcass values rising faster than hog prices.
Early-Weaned and Feeder Pig Prices Reach Record Highs
Strong demand for pork has extended beyond the slaughter market, affecting the early-weaned and 40-pound feeder pig markets. Producers, anticipating continued demand and tight supplies, have bid prices up for these categories.
- The average price of early-weaned pigs in January 2025 was $79.96 per pig, a 96% increase from January 2024.
- 40-pound feeder pigs averaged $102.82 per pig, more than double the $49.57 price seen a year ago.
These price surges suggest confidence in the long-term strength of the U.S. pork market.
Canadian Swine Imports Slightly Decline
Canada remains the largest supplier of imported swine to the U.S., accounting for 5% of total U.S. FI slaughter. However, total imports of Canadian hogs and pigs are expected to decline slightly in 2025, falling 0.6% to 6.7 million head.
First-Quarter and Full-Year Pork Production Forecasts
The USDA maintains its first-quarter pork production forecast at 7.1 billion pounds, up 0.4% from Q1 2024. Total U.S. pork production for 2025 is projected at 28.5 billion pounds, a 2.7% increase from 2024 levels.
Hog prices are expected to average $63.50 per cwt in 2025, a 3.2% increase over 2024. The combination of higher production and higher prices suggests continued strong demand, marking the second consecutive year of robust pork market growth.
Pork Exports Hold Steady Despite High Prices
In December 2024, U.S. pork exports totaled 646 million pounds, virtually unchanged from December 2023. Exports to Mexico—the largest buyer of U.S. pork—remained steady, while declines in shipments to Japan and South Korea were offset by increased exports to China, Hong Kong, and Panama.
While high U.S. pork prices and a strong U.S. dollar may have created headwinds for exports, demand from key markets remains resilient. For full-year 2024, U.S. pork exports rose 4.3% to 7.1 billion pounds, with Mexico and Japan together accounting for over 40% of total exports.
Outlook: Strong Demand and Higher Prices Expected
Looking ahead, the U.S. pork industry enters 2025 with optimism, supported by higher consumer demand, firm prices, and steady exports. Although the market remains competitive, the ability of processors and producers to command higher prices—despite increased production—demonstrates the resilience of pork demand both domestically and internationally.
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